The 91st Academy Awards are coming up quick so
here are my Oscar predictions. These are likely completely wrong and out of
place, but none the less, what I’m sticking with for now.
Sound off below as to what you think will win.
A Star is Born
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
Could Win: Roma
Should Win: Vice
BlacKkKlansman has not won any precursor awards leading up to the Oscars, so that makes my prediction for a Best Picture win pretty shaky. Why not Black Panther given that just won the SAG Best Ensemble award? Well, it doesn’t have a Best Director, Best Screenplay, or Best Editing nomination, so that’s out. Why not Green Book? While it’s a ‘classic’ Oscar film, it’s clear that that style of film no longer wins in the way they used to at the Oscars with the new Academy members voting differently. What about Bohemian Rhapsody? The Academy doesn’t want to instigate a riot on Hollywood Boulevard. How about Vice? That’s pretty much dead in the water, as a win for a film about Dick Cheney could be seen as a win for Cheney himself (well, at least that’s certainly how Trump and co. might see it). A Star is Born could surprise, but the love for that film has faded, and it would be a little strange seeing the fourth remake of a decades old story take the main prize, no matter how great Cooper’s film is. The Favourite has no hope as a film that has three women leads has never won Best Picture, and this one certainly is not going to buck that trend.
Which leaves Roma and
BlacKkKlansman. Roma has the same issue as The
Favourite – it has two women characters at the lead –, but it has a few
more hurdles to jump – it’s in a foreign language, it’s in black and white, and
it’s a Netflix film. If Steven
Spielberg’s vocal outrage about the streaming giant getting this kind of
attention carries weight, then there are likely others who will vote in kind.
It’s also definite that Alfonso Cuaron is going to win multiple awards elsewhere
throughout the night, so voters may decide that those wins will be enough.
Which leaves BlacKkKlansman. Following the trend of 12 Years a Slave and Moonlight, BlacKkKlansman will be the third Best Picture winner directed by a black director who doesn’t win the Best Director Oscar. BlacKkKlansman is a great film, and it’s a film that is of the moment. It says something about the world we live in today, and the history that has lead us here. It’s powerful and unforgettable, and for that reason alone it’ll be the Best Picture winner at the 91s Academy Awards.
Alfonso Cuarón – Roma Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite Adam McKay – Vice
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
Could Win: Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
Should Win: Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
Yorgos, Pawel, and Adam are all just happy to be in
consideration in what boils down to being the Spike V Alfonso fight. Yes,
Alfonso Cuarón has won every award in the lead up to the Oscars, and he’ll
likely win on Oscar night as well, but… consider this. It’s the first
nomination for Spike Lee – a man who has crafted one of the finest catalogues
of cinematic genius in American history, and who had the misfortune of having
the spectre of Driving Miss Daisy
hanging over his head all these years since it beat out Do the Right Thing way back in the eighties (a film that wasn’t
even nominated for Best Picture, mind you). He’s as overdue as anybody, and
well and truly both deserves and desires the award.
So, he wants the award. He’s deserving of the award. He should win. But, for the Academy’s sake
he should also win. They’re in their 91st year and have not rewarded
an African American director for Best Director. Do they really want to get to
their 100th year having never rewarded a black director for Best
Director? They may as well shut up shop if this happens. Yes, Alfonso is
deserving for the award given the brilliance of Roma, but quality has never been a guiding force behind giving out Oscars
(see Rami Malek), so here we are with Spike V Alfonso. I fully expect Alfonso
to win, but will not be surprised if the Academy throws their support behind
Do I even have to break this one down? Glenn Close is
finally getting an Oscar, and it’s for a damn great performance. Oddly, I seem
to be one of the few people willing to stick their head up and defend the film –
a great film that houses a career best performance from Close. Yes, Lady Gaga
is great in A Star is Born, and
Olivia Colman is superb, and Yalitza Aparicio is a natural talent, and Melissa
McCarthy delivers one of the finest performances of the year, but nobody has a
whisker on Glenn Close. Finally.
Christian Bale – Vice Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
Best call this one the ‘Eddie Redmayne award’ now, with Rami
Malek quite easily walking away with the award for best prosthetic device. This
is less an award for the performance, and more an award for the character that
they are playing, and given everyone likes Queen and Freddy Mercury, well… the
Oscar goes to Rami Malek. Forget the fact that Bradley Cooper did his own
singing and drew from his lived in experience with alcohol abuse. Forget the
immersive, career best performance from Christian Bale. Ignore Viggo Mortensen’s
slightly offensive stereotypical Italian performance. And, try your hardest to
remember who the fifth nominee is when you have to answer ‘who did Rami Malek
beat at the 91st Academy Awards for Best Actor?’ at your next trivia
night. (It’s Willem Dafoe.)
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – Vice Marina de Tavira – Roma Regina King – If Beale Street Could
Talk Emma Stone – The Favourite Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
Will Win: Regina King – If
Beale Street Could Talk
Could Win: Marina de Tavira – Roma
Should Win: Emma Stone – The
If Amy Adams weren’t portraying Lynne Cheney, then her sixth
nomination would have secured a win, but alas, she’ll have to settle with
taking the crown from Glenn Close as the most nominated working actor to not
win. Next time Amy. Personally, my favourite performance of the bunch – Emma Stone
in The Favourite – won’t get the
recognition she deserves, even though she gives one exceptionally delicious
performance. Likewise, her co-star, Rachel Weisz, will have to settle for a
nomination as a prize. Oscar favourite Regina King will most likely win for her
steadfast mother figure, but don’t be surprised if Marina de Tavira’s name is
called out on the night, as the media train has been working hard with both de
Tavira and Yalitza Aparicio out doing interviews galore for the film. Out of
all the acting categories, this is one where an unexpected win could occur.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – Green Book Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman Sam Elliott – A Star is Born Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever
Forgive Me? Sam Rockwell – Vice
Will Win: Mahershala Ali – Green
Could Win: Richard E. Grant – Can
You Ever Forgive Me?
Should Win: Richard E. Grant – Can
You Ever Forgive Me?
Two years on from his deserving win in Moonlight, Mahershala Ali will easily walk away with another bout
of Oscar glory on the 24th of February for Green Book. Slight category fraud here will help secure his win, as
well as the fact that he gets to deliver one heck of an Oscar scene with his questioning
of his identity in the rain. If there’s a spoiler on Oscar night, it’ll likely
be Richard E. Grant who has manages to upset the apple cart here, proving that
being the nicest person on twitter, a damn nice person, and giving a great
performance, is the perfect recipe you need for Oscar glory. Sure, Sam Elliott
might win on career longevity alone, but just like Adam Driver and Sam
Rockwell, the nomination is reward enough this time round.
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